9:45 AM Briefing: VIX Spikes as Post-FOMC Hangover Persists
PART 1: THE OPENING BELL DASHBOARD (9:45 AM ET)
| Metric | Value | Session Context |
|---|---|---|
| SPX Spot | 6695.00 | Gap Down vs Yesterday Close |
| ES Futures | 6702.00 | Broke Below Overnight Low |
| VIX | 22.97 | Expanding, Post-FOMC Hangover |
| 0-DTE Straddle | $25.00 | ~0.4% Implied Move |
| Catalysts | FOMC Digestion | Sustained Focus on Powell's Rate Remarks |
PART 2: MARKET STRUCTURE & GEX
- Gamma Wall (Call Resistance): 6750 remains the dominant call wall, with heavy dealer short gamma overhead suppressing any sustained rally attempts.
- Gamma Flip / Support: The 6650-6675 zone is the critical pivot. A break below accelerates negative gamma hedging from dealers, fueling downside volatility.
- Dealer Positioning: Dealers are currently short gamma following the post-FOMC selloff. This positioning favors directional acceleration over mean-reversion, meaning dips could quickly turn into deeper washouts if support fails to hold.
PART 3: TRADE IDEA: THE MORNING PLAYBOOK
Setup: Trend Continuation (Downside) Based on the opening auction and first 15 minutes of flow indicating sustained distribution.
- Instrument: SPX 0-DTE Puts (6650 Strike)
- Entry Zone: 6680 - 6695 (Sell any morning bounce into resistance)
- Target: 6625
- Stop Loss: 6710 (Invalidates intraday downtrend)
- Risk/Reward: 1:3
- Notes: Wait for the initial 30-minute opening range to establish a high. If the market fails to reclaim 6710 by 10:15 AM, initiate short positions.
PART 4: 1DTE SPX OPTION RECOMMENDATIONS
- Trade: Sell 1DTE 6750/6770 Call Credit Spreads.
- Rationale: With the VIX expanding and dealers short gamma, the probability of a sudden 1%+ rip to the upside is extremely low. The 6750 call wall will act as a formidable ceiling.
- Risk Management: Size appropriately to account for elevated volatility. Stop loss on the spread if SPX spot crosses and holds above 6725 on a 15-minute closing basis.
Disclaimer: Trading involves significant risk of loss. The information provided in this briefing is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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