2:00 PM Briefing: Positioning for the Close

PART 1: AFTERNOON PIVOT (2:00 PM ET)

PART 2: BOND/YIELD UPDATE

• Auction Results: Markets are anticipating the Federal Reserve's reaction to the impact of the Middle East crisis to be observed at this week's meeting. Treasury yields ended the week higher as traders worried that the conflict in the Middle East will push up energy prices and trigger broader inflation.
• Yield Reaction: Yields reversed early losses, with the conflict with Iran threatening to escalate further. Tech stocks, such as Meta, are gaining despite elevated crude prices keeping risk-taking in check.

PART 3: CLOSING SCENARIOS

• Bull Case: Holding the 200-day moving average (6,604) on the S&P 500 is crucial for a rally into the close.
• Bear Case: A break below 6,604 could accelerate selling pressure.
• Gamma Pin Risk: Pin risk exists around key round numbers, given the short gamma environment and elevated volatility.

PART 4: 1DTE SPX OPTION RECOMMENDATIONS

• Trade Idea: 1DTE SPX Iron Condor (Neutral to slightly bullish)
• Strikes: Sell 6600 Put / Buy 6590 Put AND Sell 6630 Call / Buy 6640 Call
• Rationale: Capitalizing on elevated volatility while defining risk, assuming SPX holds the 6604 pivot and chops into the close.
• Risk Management: Close the trade if SPX breaches 6595 or 6635. Max loss is the spread width minus credit received.

TradeScope Risk Disclosure: The information provided in this briefing is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always perform your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.