9:45 AM Briefing: Post-Holiday Gap Down & Negative Gamma Regime

PART 1: THE OPENING BELL DASHBOARD (9:45 AM ET)

PART 2: MARKET STRUCTURE & GEX

• Gamma Wall (Call Resistance): 7,000. This psychological and structural level remains the dominant ceiling. Dealers are short calls here, capping upside.
• Gamma Flip / Support: 6,920 / 6,900. We are currently in a Negative Gamma regime (Spot < Flip).
• Dealer Positioning: Short Gamma. In this zone, dealers must sell rips and sell breakdowns to hedge. This positioning exacerbates volatility and increases the probability of directional acceleration (trend days).

PART 3: TRADE IDEA: THE MORNING PLAYBOOK

Setup: Trend Continuation / Breakdown Context: The market has gapped down into a negative gamma pocket. Early bounces into the opening print are liable to be sold.

• Instrument: SPX 0-DTE Puts (Strike: 6925 or 6930)
• Entry Zone: 6,955 - 6,965 (Fade the opening chop/retest of VWAP).
• Target: 6,920 (First support) -> 6,900 (Gamma support).
• Stop Loss: 6,975 (Reclaim of Friday's range/gap fill).
• Risk/Reward: 1:3
• Notes: Watch for the 10:00 AM NAHB data. If VIX pushes through 22, expect acceleration to 6900.

PART 4: 1DTE SPX OPTION RECOMMENDATIONS

• Bearish Bias (Primary): Buy SPX 1DTE (Feb 18) 6900 Puts.

  • Rationale: Betting on a multi-day bleed into OpEx (Friday). If 6950 fails to hold, the path to 6900 is the path of least resistance.
  • Risk Management: Cut if SPX reclaims 6980 closing basis.

• Hedge / Neutral: Sell SPX 1DTE 7025 Calls (Credit Spreads).

  • Rationale: Capitalizing on the 7000 Call Wall. Probability of touching 7025 by tomorrow is low given the negative gamma drag.

Disclaimer: Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices are indicative only and subject to change.